After landing in Tel Aviv, US secretary of state says it is a ‘decisive moment’ for the truce talks ahead of meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu
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A ceasefire would halt the deadliest war ever fought between Israelis and Palestinians, a conflict that has destabilised the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests. Associated Press has compiled a primer on the current situation.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to health officials. The vast majority of the population has been displaced, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands of people are packed into squalid tent camps, the health sector has largely collapsed and entire neighbourhoods have been obliterated.
The Hamas-led attack on 7 October killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw militants abduct around 250 hostages. Some 110 hostages are still in Gaza, with Israeli authorities saying around a third are dead. Over 100 hostages were released during a weeklong ceasefire in November.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah has launched drones and rockets into Israel on a near-daily basis since the start of the war, and Israel has responded with airstrikes and artillery. The violence has escalated, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on both sides of the border.
Hezbollah has vowed an even more severe attack — without saying when or how — in response to the killing last month of Fuad Shukur, one of its top commanders, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Iran and Israel traded fire directly in April, and many fear a repeat if Iran makes good on its threat to avenge the killing of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Hezbollah has said it would halt its operations along the border if there is calm in Gaza.
What are the sticking points?
The two sides have been working to an evolving proposal for a three-phase process in which Hamas would free all the hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire.
President Joe Biden came out in favour of the proposal in a 31 May speech and the UN Security Council approved it. But since then, Hamas has proposed “amendments” and Israel has asked for “clarifications,” with each side accusing the other of making new demands it cannot accept.
Hamas wants assurances that Israel will not resume the war after the first batch of hostages — around 30 of the most vulnerable — are released. Israel wants to ensure negotiations do not drag on indefinitely over the second phase, in which the remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, are to be freed.
Netanyahu has also demanded in recent weeks that Israel maintain a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border which it says is necessary to stop Hamas and other militias rearming and regrouping.
Who decides whether there is a ceasefire?
Any deal would have to be accepted by Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, who helped mastermind the 7 October attack and became Hamas’ overall leader after Haniyeh was killed.
Netanyahu faces intense pressure from families of the hostages and much of the Israeli public to make a deal. But far-right leaders in his coalition have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much.
Sinwar, meanwhile, is hiding in Gaza, likely deep inside Hamas’ vast network of tunnels, and has stuck to a hard line throughout the talks. He also tops Israel’s most-wanted list, raising questions about what happens if he is killed.
In the past it has taken several days for Hamas’ negotiators to send proposals to Sinwar and receive his feedback. That means that even when the work of hammering out the latest proposal is completed, it would likely take a week or more for Hamas to formally respond to it. When Hamas accepted an earlier proposal in May, spontaneous celebrations erupted — but those hopes were soon dashed.
Aid groups have called for a ceasefire since the start of the war, saying it’s the only way to ensure desperately needed food and humanitarian aid reaches Gaza.
It’s also time to make sure that no one takes any steps that could derail this process.
We’re working to make sure that there is no escalation, that there are no provocations, that there are no actions that in any way could move us away from getting this deal over the line, or, for that matter, escalating the conflict to other places, and to greater intensity.